SciDev.Net

This journal article describes the first climate-based model used to predict outbreaks of dengue fever. Researchers from the University of Miami and the University of Costa Rica used climate data and vegetation indices from Costa Rica to predict disease outbreaks with 83 per cent accuracy.

Globally, there are up to 100 million cases of dengue fever, and its more dangerous form, dengue haemorrhagic fever, every year. The spread of dengue fever is set to rise as the world's climate changes. The importance of this model is that it could be used as the basis for an early warning system to prevent the spread of the disease by warning populations that are at risk.

The indices used in the model include variables such as El Niño Southern Oscillations and sea surface temperature, which affect populations of the Aedes aegypti mosquito that spreads the infection.

A population's immunity to disease can greatly affect outbreaks of vector-borne disease, and isolating the influence of climate variability has proven difficult. This research study sets out to evaluate the effect of climate by accounting for population immunity.

The authors collated data on cholera cases from a predominant strain in the rural area of Matlab, Bangladesh, from 1966–2002. They used a model to incorporate immunity from previous infections and also potential cross-immunity from previous infections by other strains. They found that both forms of immunity were long-lasting — over 10 years in some cases. Yet the variation in transmission did not always match variations in immunity; at several points, it coincided with severe weather change such as monsoon rains or river overflow.

The authors suggest that forecasting disease will require considering climate variability alongside population susceptibility.

The authors of this article analysed simulation results from a regional climate model for the northern Indian Ocean to predict likely changes in the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal from 2041–2060.

They find that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to more frequent cyclones in the region, particularly during the post-monsoon period. In addition, the number of intense cyclones and storm surges will increase. These results are consistent with other trend analyses that show intensification of cyclones in the bay during the last century.

But the research described in this paper only deals with simulations from one future climate scenario. To obtain better regional climate projections, the authors suggest it is necessary to examine simulations from more scenarios.

The authors of this article use satellite data to examine trends in the maximum intensities that cyclones can achieve during their lifetimes.

Results from previous analyses of tropical cyclone trends have been questioned due to a lack of consensus regarding data reliability. Moreover results have not been matched to theory because the focus has mainly been on changes in mean tropical cyclone statistics.

In this article, the authors conclusively show significant increases in the maximum wind speeds achieved by the strongest cyclones across all ocean basins except the South Pacific Ocean, with the largest increases occurring over the North Atlantic and northern Indian Oceans.

These findings are consistent with the idea that as seas warm, cyclones become more intense because the ocean has more energy that can be converted to tropical cyclone wind.

Geological carbon sequestration remains an attractive climate change mitigation option. But there are uncertainties and complexities surrounding the legality of projects aiming to sequester carbon this way. This working paper reviews the legal issues concerning geological carbon sequestration in the offshore waters surrounding the United Kingdom.

Geological carbon sequestration aims to prevent emissions from entering the atmosphere by capturing CO2 at source. Unlike carbon sequestration by forests, where CO2 already in the atmosphere is taken up, geological sequestration is classed as an emission reduction at the source. From a legal perspective, different locations of the sea are subject to different prescriptions under international law, but it is individual nations who have the greatest amount of jurisdiction and control over waters closest to the shore. There two key legal questions in this regard. Is CO2 a waste, and hence, can we consider it as dumped? And what is the pathway of CO2 at the storage site? This paper finds that long term storage should be considered dumping, and that existing legal tools do not properly address the pathways involved in CO2 transport.

This working paper explores an area of research that has not been considered in detail to date. While the results are specific to the EU, the content is relevant globally. It is important reading for anyone interested in the frontiers of current carbon sinks research.

Concerns over climate change may soon force drastic reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. In response to this challenge, it may prove necessary to render fossil fuels environmentally acceptable by capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide until other inexpensive, clean and plentiful technologies are available. In this Science review article, Klaus S. Lackner gives a detailed overview of the various options available for carbon sequestration, highlighting the pros and cons of each.

The authors report new data showing that the western side of the north Greenland ice sheet is thinning much more than anticipated from previous studies.

The author summarises the current state of knowledge regarding uncertainties in modelling future climates, and describes how several scientific approaches are being taken to address these issues.