SciDev.Net

This brief, based on an ESMAP report published in 2005, provides a roadmap for developing countries considering large-scale biofuels production.

It proposes sugarcane ethanol as the most commercially viable option, and draws on Brazil's experience to show what has made their industry successful, as well as listing eight conditions that foster success in ethanol production. These include adequately educating farmers, establishing good roads and developing a communication infrastructure.

Although almost 100 countries have started to grow sugarcane, none have yet matched Brazil's success. This brief outlines steps for a global evolution of biofuels production, and suggests ways in which governments can help.

This report, assessing bioenergy production in G8+5 countries, highlights challenges for the developing industry.

Trade barriers still impede bioenergy development, particularly in smaller developing countries. And although not all biofuels are environmentally friendly, there is no international sustainability assurance system for bioenergy — though this is being addressed.

All of the +5 countries except Russia have set a transport biofuel target, and are reviewing blending targets. Almost all countries cite energy security and climate change as the most important factors for developing biofuels. Technical standards are becoming increasingly uniform, which will promote quality assurance and trade.

Energy demands are rising, and most of this demand will come from outside the OECD by 2015.

This report outlines how developing country farmers can exploit biofuels' potential, including producing ethanol from crop residues and growing energy crops on land unsuitable for producing food.

It analyses bioenergy's effects on global food sources, showing how incomes, and thus food security, could improve.

Developing an industry that benefits poor, small-scale farmers is a challenge. The authors highlight the need for management and regulation at all levels, from local communities to policymakers, as well as ensuring technologies are transferred.

Biofuels offer an attractive solution to escalating oil prices and concern over how fossil fuels affect global climate. They also provide new prospects for rural communities.

But their full implications, for developing countries and the environment, remain unclear. Balancing economic efficiency and environmental sustainability is not easy, and many key questions remain unanswered.

This essay addresses some of these questions, investigating the pros and cons of biofuels for the developing world. It examines economic and social factors, and the role of science and technology in biofuels production. It explores experiences from Brazil and other developing nations, as well as trade-offs between producing biofuels and food.

This book-length report details a study by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) that aimed to map vulnerability to the impacts of climate change in Africa. 

Climate change models of four different future scenarios were used and the impacts on agriculture assessed. Biophysical and social vulnerability were also analysed, using indicators developed specifically for this research.

The outcomes suggest, if tentatively, that many already vulnerable systems may be adversely affected by climate impacts, including the mixed arid-semiarid systems in the Sahel and rangelands in eastern Africa, the Great Lakes region, the coastal regions of eastern Africa and the drier zones of southern Africa.

The report concludes that adaptation is best researched at national or regional levels, not the macro level, due to local variability, and that communities themselves need to become much more involved in adaptation strategies.

This chapter of the IPCC special report on climate change's regional impacts is one of the most authoritative sources on the issue, despite a considerable amount of work having been published since.

The chapter covers the regional climate, key vulnerabilities for various sectors, such as terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, agriculture and fisheries, coastal zones, human settlements and health. A synthesis outlines the potential impacts on the continent and lays out the key challenges that should guide further research.

This chapter should be read together with chapter 10 of the IPCC's 'Climate Change 2001' report. They cover similar ground, but various developments in research distinguish the two. The document is also available in French (PDF).

This chapter of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the authoritative source on climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in Africa. It summarises much of the peer-reviewed literature that explains how Africa will fare in a changing climate.

Background information on why Africa is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change is provided. The major issues of regional concern including unreliable water resources, food security, natural resource management and loss of biodiversity, human health, the built environment and infrastructure and desertification and how these will be compounded by projected climate change are discussed.

The chapter highlights the uncertainty of predicting climate change impacts in Africa and emphasises the existing diversity of African climates.

The provided synthesis of years of peer-reviewed research is essential reading for anyone interested in climate change in Africa. The text is also available as an html document.

This paper provides a call for a new Green Revolution focused on Africa. It summarises the successes and failures of the original Green Revolution, setting out the challenge of igniting a new one that can succeed in Africa.

The authors identify the need for more robust seed varieties, more trained scientists, improved inputs and cultivation practices, better supply and marketing infrastructure, and greater access to irrigation. Achieving these, say the authors, will require strong partnerships between philanthropists, governments, donors, research institutes and the private sector, as well as decisive leadership.

Adapting to climate change is seen as imperative to sustainable development. Yet few poverty alleviation efforts include adaptation strategies. This report examines the progress in mainstreaming adaptation into development planning in countries like Bangladesh, Kenya, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.

It focuses on integration of adaptation into poverty reduction frameworks in economic sectors, international donors, nongovernmental organisations and research institutes. The authors highlight five types of potential obstacles; information, institutions, inclusion, incentives, and international development finance.

They recommend that policymakers work more closely with scientists to understand climate change impacts and their relation to development priorities. They also suggest more civil society and nongovernmental stakeholders be included in climate policymaking. National adaptation programmes should be situated within powerful ministries, say the authors. And donors should provide incentives for developing countries to participate in adaptation efforts, they add.

This 200-page report provides background data and analysis on climate impacts in sub-Saharan Africa, and identifies 'hotspots' of environmental change. It maps current farming systems throughout the continent, as well as key indicators of climate change including number and length of growing seasons and annual rainfall. A map of 'vulnerability' across the continent is presented, based on natural, physical, social and human indicators, and financial capital under different climate scenarios.

Some of the uncertainties in the analysis are identified and the decision-making implications discussed. Although the maps do not disclose the causes of climate change in Africa, they do give policymakers warning of the communities and farming systems likely to suffer most.

The report points out that Africa will face some of the largest impacts despite its countries being among the world's lowest greenhouse gas emitters. Developed countries therefore have an ethical obligation to help the continent prepare for climate change impacts, say the authors, although they also emphasise the need for local communities to start implementing adaptation strategies for themselves.

This independent review, commissioned by the UK chancellor of the exchequer, examines the economic impacts of climate change, the economics of stabilising greenhouse gas emissions and considers policymaker's challenges in adapting to climate change and moving towards a low-carbon economy.

The review uses scientific evidence to highlight the risk of irreversible climate change impacts in normal emission scenarios. Evidence of threats to the basic elements of life around the world, including access to water, food production and health are presented, with poorest countries projected to suffer the most.

The review also shows that, left unabated, climate change will damage economic growth. Mitigating climate change effects must be seen as an investment. Moving towards a low-carbon economy may have a significant cost and challenge competitiveness, but it will also bring opportunities for growth.

In discussing the policy challenges for reducing emissions, the review emphasises the need for strong international cooperation and collective action. Climate change policy, says the author, will need to focus on carbon pricing, low-carbon technology, and the removal of barriers to behavioural change across the world. Developing countries in particular will need carbon finance to support emission reductions and curb deforestation, as well as international aid to implement adaptation efforts.

The Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol makes it possible to carry out projects that reduce carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries with funding from the North. Using case studies from Barbados, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa, this report examines the contribution of solar water-heating projects to reducing carbon emissions. 

The report suggests that in these six countries, there is good potential for solar water-heating projects. However, the report also points to several obstacles including institutional inertia and a lack of communication between manufacturers and the building industry.

While somewhat technical, the report provides an interesting assessment of the potential opportunities of a specific alternative energy technology in a carbon finance context. It can serve as case study reading for those interested in carbon finance in the South.

This report, by Richard Newell and William Pizer of the independent nonprofit research institute Resources for the Future, highlights an important variable that often goes unexamined in current climate change models: uncertainty in future interest rates. Climate models incorporate discount rates to compare costs and benefits over time-in essence, they tell us how high future benefits need to be to justify spending today. Most climate models choose one rate and hold it constant over the time horizon of the model.

This study questions that conventional approach, arguing that future rates are uncertain. The authors demonstrate that acknowledging uncertainty about future interest rates leads to a higher valuation of the future benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions today — regardless of the initial rate one chooses. The authors conclude that, by ignoring uncertainty, current approaches used in economic modelling may be consistently undervaluing the future benefits of current climate change mitigation efforts. The report shows that including the effect of interest rate uncertainty in climate models could raise valuations of mitigation efforts by as much as 95 per cent relative to conventional discounting at a constant rate.

Worldwide, greenhouse gas emissions are rising faster in transportation than in any other sector. Rapid motorisation — more cars and trucks — is the principal cause. This report focuses on the challenges faced by developing countries in accommodating and managing motorisation and the demand for improved transportation.

The report provides a broad characterisation of transportation in developing countries, identifying common challenges and opportunities for policymakers, and suggesting policy options that aim to slow the growth of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector.

The most important observations are:

• Rapid motorisation — and rapid growth in transport-related greenhouse gas emissions — are unavoidable in most developing nations.
• The relationship between car ownership and income is not fixed.
• Once people have personal vehicles, they use them even if alternative transportation modes are available.
• There are many sensible policies and strategies that would slow the growth of transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. Key strategies include increasing the cost of using conventional private cars and enhancing the quality and choices of alternative transportation.
• Many of the strategies for slowing and eventually reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation have local as well as global benefits.